Mother Time

Mother Time, I see you without fail
Face like crumpled newspaper
And body oh so frail!

Alone in the world without a care
Take another big, deep puff
And give us all fresh air.

When will husband Father Time greet you?
Surely those brown cigarettes
Will one day defeat you!

NFL Draft Day 1 Dinks & Dunks

With the first day in the books, thirty-two new players have embarked on their NFL journey.  Fortunately, I had the privilege of attending the draft this year.  On a side note, it was definitely a worthwhile experience if you can spare two afternoons of waiting on lines.  For the rabid NFL fan, I give it a ringing endorsement.

Before we look back at Round 1, it is imperative to note three disclaimers:

DISCLAIMER 1:  I will be the first to admit I am no expert on this.  I watch more NFL games than college.  That being said, when my post Super Bowl hangover sets in (not literally, figuratively!), I turn 90% of my football focus to the draft.  I do my best to watch cut-ups of some of the first round prospects my team might want.  Furthermore, I religiously follow and read tons of the most respective draft analysts out there (Greg Cosell of NFL Films and Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net being two of them).  Instead of merely mimicking what they say in their evaluations, I try to look at certain traits certain players possess that I believe fits in best with the ever-changing style of pro football.

DISCLAIMER 2: I am not going to talk about "biggest reach" or "best value."  Why?  Because for the past few months, fans have gotten so accustomed to mock drafts put out there by armchair GMs across the internet in TV.  While some analysts are very plugged in with league sources (Cosell and Pauline being two), the vast majority are not.  So while some of the picks last night were not popular first rounders in internet mocks, it does not mean these players will not be good.  This is certainly the case with very intelligent front offices.  For example, while not many predicted Justin Pugh or Eric Reid to be top 20 picks, I am more than willing to sign off on that simply because of their savvy moves in the past.

DISCLAIMER 3: Just because a pick might not make a whole bunch of sense this year, it does not mean it is a bad or silly pick.  Remember, you're drafting a player in the hopes that he will be an impact player for a number of years.  Rosters change dramatically in a very short period of time, so while a player might not look like an immediate fit, walking away with pure talent is paramount.

Now, on to the reactions from last night:

Best Trade Up
Miami Dolphins -- acquired the #3 overall pick in exchange for the #12 and #42 picks in order to select DE/SLB Dion Jordan.

- While it is quite obvious that Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland has continually made moves this offseason as if he is GM'ing to save his job (spending like a drunken sailor in free agency comes to mind), this bold move was a wise one.  Often times when a GM feels he is on the hot seat, he will make moves that help in the immediate but could sabotage the team in the long term, whether it be by overpaying for players or simply disregarding the future.

I do not believe that to be the case here because Jordan is well worth the trade up.  To have the movement skills he has at that size (6'6" 240+ lbs.) is just unfathomable.   Sure, his sack numbers were not impressive last year, but he was not simply asked to pin his ears back and go get the QB.  He was tasked with numerous responsibilities in coverage, even at times lining up against slot receivers.  With his type of versatility, size, athleticism, and pass rushing potential, could this be the answer to juggernaut spread or no huddle offenses?  Time will only tell, but I like the move.  The Dolphins have a talented defense, but they were in need of some youth. 

Lastly, this was a great move in terms of what they had to give up which was minimal.  While the draft trade value chart is a bit antiquated these days, we can still use it as a reference tool.  The #3 overall pick carries a trade value number of 2200, while the #12 and #42 picks combine for a trade value of 1680.  The numbers back up exactly what I thought when the trade was made last night -- Oakland had zero leverage.  It was well known that they were very eager to trade down last night simply because they possess the least talented team in the NFL and need as many picks as possible.  In the bargaining game, you are not going to get full value back if you are the Raiders.  Miami ultimately gave up peanuts to what could be the most dynamic defensive player in the whole draft.

Worst Trade Up
St. Louis Rams -- acquired the #8 overall pick in exchange for their #16 overall pick, 2nd rounder, 3rd rounder, and 7th rounder in order to select WR Tavon Austin.

- Three things: 1) I love Tavon Austin as a player, and was one of my favorite players in the draft; 2) St. Louis has a boatload of picks thanks to their trade with Washington this year, so they were able to withstand the loss of lots of picks; and 3) This is in no way an egregious move.

That being said, it certainly cranks up the pressure for St. Louis, and I am critical of this move in a couple of ways.  First and foremost, the Rams sorely lost the leverage game here.  While there are smokescreens upon smokescreens leading up to the draft, the truth gets leaked more often than not in the 24-48 hours before Round 1.  Based on the reports, it was quite obvious that the Rams desperately wanted Tavon Austin and were doing whatever it takes to get him.  The draft value chart does not scream lopsided trade (Buffalo's acquired picks adds up to 1642.6 while St. Louis's #8 pick adds up to 1400), but the Rams tipped their hand too early.  Then again, if Tavon Austin ends up as the next Percy Harvin, you can beat me over the head with a sledgehammer because the draft value chart will be worth as much as a Bitcoin at that point.

Lastly, this move is the ultimate "put up or shut up" moment for Sam Bradford.  Let me be clear:  I do not buy this guy as a legitimate long term starting NFL QB.  He has no officially run out of excuses.  First it was he had no weapons.  Then he had no line.  He is in year three now.  If you want to live up to the #1 pick you were (on top of being touted as the best QB prospect in years), it is do or die time.  Austin gives him an explosive movable chess piece on the field that is a threat to score from anywhere. On top of that, he now has six highly athletic skill position players all 26 years old or younger -- Austin, Brian Quick, Chris Givens, Jared Cook, Isaiah Pead, and Daryl Richardson.  If Bradford fails to step up this year, they will be back at the drawing board in 2014 looking for a new franchise QB.

Most Shocking Pick
I would not say these are the worst picks tonight -- both are talented players -- but two selections last night made me question the scheme fit.

1) Jets select DT Sheldon Richardson at #13 -- This is the third year in a row where New York has spent a first rounder on a non-edge rushing defensive lineman.  While Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples have turned out to be excellent picks, the Richardson selection, at first glance, screams overkill to me considering he is a similar style player to Wilkerson and Coples in that he does most of his damage against interior offensive linemen.

And this is not a knock on Richardson.  Here is what draft guru Tony Pauline has to say about him: 

Richardson is a tremendous combination of athleticism, intensity, and power. He offers      possibilities as a conventional defensive tackle, 3-technique tackle, or even as a defensive end in the 3-4 alignment. He's a prospect who should only improve as he physically matures and learns the game.

After further thought, the move makes more sense if you consider two things: 1) The Jets are going to be throwing out more 4-3 looks in the past (and using Wilkerson/Coples as 4-3 ends more often than in the past); and 2) The Jets are so talent depleted right now that picking the best player available was essential.  According to GM John Idzik, Richardson was a top 4 player on their draft board.  As far as the first point goes, it can be corroborated by the fact that Muhammad Wilkerson has shed 20 lbs. from last year and is now at 295 lbs.  Either way, the pick came as a surprise to me.

2) Colts select DE/OLB Bjoern Werner at #24 -- Werner was a coveted pick early in the draft process but was likely overrated by internet draftniks.  It was clear as the process went along that NFL scouts did not view him as the top 10 pick the amateurs saw him as.

Having said that, I did not expect Werner to go to a 3-4 defense.  Many of the people I respect question his ability to play in reverse and out in space.

While I was initially caught off guard, a few things came to mind after last night finished.  Firstly, GM Ryan Grigson hit a home run in last year's draft.  Sure, it is easy to pick someone like Andrew Luck at #1 overall, but he completely retooled that offense to immediately provide Luck with young weapons to build around.  Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton, and LaVon Brazzil all made an impact last year for Indy.  That is absurd.  

Secondly, the more and more I thought about how Chuck Pagano runs his defense, Werner will likely still be playing with his hand in the dirt more often than not.  Pagano came over from Baltimore where they "ran" a 3-4, but they were not traditional looks.  Terrell Suggs is a hybrid DE/OLB, but he sees most of his action with his hand in the dirt.  Perhaps Grigson and Pagano envision Werner, who is very similar in size and build to Suggs (Werner is 6'3.5" and 266 lbs. while Suggs is 6'3" 260 lbs.), as their version of T-Suggs.

Lack of Skill (Positions)

We all knew this draft was lacking in those fantasy football type of impact players, but last night was bare on offensive skill position players.  Only five skill position players were selected last night -- WR Tavon Austin, QB EJ Manuel, TE Tyler Efiert, WR DeAndre Hopkins, and WR Cordarrelle Patterson.  Since 1998, or as I like to call it "The Peyton Manning Era," the lowest number of skill position players drafted in the first round was eight which occurred twice (2010, 2011).

We all knew the QB class was weak this year, but the other offensive skill positions were lacking with talent at the top as well.  This was the first time in fifty years where a running back was not selected in the first round.  In contrast, a whopping nine offensive linemen were selected last night on top of ten defensive linemen/edge rushers, giving credence to this draft being deemed a "meat and potatoes" one.  

Conclusion

The draft is about as fun and unpredictable as Christmas morning for a child.  We live in a society that wants an immediate answer, but we really will not know about the prospects of this draft until two or three years down the road.

I am off to see Rounds 2 & 3 tonight.  Happy drafting, everyone.

Can't Believe This Was An Actual Nickname...

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"

Could the Quarterback Market Be Facing an Evil Bubblin’?

It is no secret that the quarterback position is the most vital one in football.  It can also be argued that with the various rule changes in the last decade designed to protect quarterbacks’ safety and promote the passing game, the quarterback is more important than ever.  Consequently, QBs make more money than any other position.  But with the meteoric rise in QB salaries compared to only modest increases in overall team salary caps in recent years, could we potentially see a bursting of the quarterback salary market bubble similar to that of the housing market or looming college tuition market?

[DISCLAIMER: EVEN THOUGH THIS IS A PIECE ON BUBBLES, FORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE THE ONE AND ONLY REFERENCE TO THE HORRIBLE VH1 SHOW "POP-UP VIDEO."]

Flacco Getting His Scrooge McDuck On

Let’s take a deeper look.  The biggest NFL headline this week is Joe Flacco's historic contract which amounts to $120.6 million over six years with $52 million guaranteed, making him the highest paid player in the league.  Upon signing the deal, Flacco will immediately get $29 million cash in his pocket plus another million in base salary during the 2013 season.  Let’s be clear that this figure is different than the cap hit Baltimore will incur this season.  Flacco will only count a modest $6.8 million towards Baltimore’s cap this year and a reasonable $14.8 and $14.55 million in 2014 and 2015, respectively.  However, his cap charges through 2016-2018 will be a whopping $28.55, $31.15, and $24.75 million.  To be fair, we won’t know the overall team salary cap limits in those years, especially with the influx of TV revenues that will ultimately boost team caps, but it will still represent an astronomical percentage of the team’s salary cap.  In terms of average payout per year, Flacco’s $20.1 million alone accounts for over 16% of the Ravens cap.

Upon receiving a $29 million check yesterday, Flacco can dive head first into a money pit like Scrooge McDuck.

Some will argue that this is an absolutely ridiculous contract for a  player who has never finished higher than 7^th in QB rating, never passed for 4,000 yards, never threw more than 25 touchdowns, and has never made a Pro Bowl.  Others will argue that he just carried his team to a Super Bowl to the tune of a sizzling 117.2 playoff QB rating and could not have any more leverage than he does now.  But does either point really matter?  Salary cap gurus such as Jason Fitzgerald at overthecap.com believe that this is really no different than Eli Manning’s 2009 then record-setting contract which paid him an average of $16.25 million per year, thus making him the league's highest paid player at the time.  Neither Manning nor Flacco has ever been confused with Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but what they are doing is resetting the market for future free agent QBs looking to cash in themselves.  Eli’s contract set the tone for his brother’s contract as well as Drew Brees’s (which we will get to later).  Flacco’s contract will now set the tone for Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, two quarterbacks with a better track record who will almost certainly ask for more than Flacco.  In other words, while Flacco is the highest paid player today, things will quickly change.  Consider him the trendsetter, not the king. 

“Show Me The Money”

So how does this compare to recent years?  Albert Breer of NFL Network wrote an interesting article last week that investigated the top average QB salaries in 2007 versus those in 2013.  In 2007, each team’s salary cap was set at $109 million.  The average cap hit of the top five QBs was $10.73 million, representing roughly 9.8% of a team’s salary cap.  In 2013, each team’s salary cap has risen to $123 million; however, the average cap hit of the top five QBs is $19.14 million, representing a staggering 15.6% of a team’s cap.

Consider it like this:  While the overall team salary caps have risen by just under 14% in the last six years, top quarterback salaries have risen by a whopping 78%.  Sooner or later, something is going to have to give or certain teams might pay the price.  Even crazier is that at the time of the Eli Manning extension in 2009, the last salary capped year in the old Collective Bargaining Agreement, allotted team salary caps were actually $5 million higher than today.  So while Eli Manning’s $16.25 million per year seemed wacky at the time, his deal only represented 12.7% of the Giants salary cap, still a much lower proportion than Flacco’s current deal.  If Manning’s deal is akin to Cosmo Kramer, Flacco’s is like"Crazy" Joe Davola.

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – Guinea Pigs?

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, two quarterbacks with far superior résumés than Flacco, both signed hefty deals last offseason.  Manning’s average payout per year is $19.2 million while Brees’s is $20 million.  While both future Hall of Famers are on the back ends of their careers unlike Flacco, we can still use their average yearly payouts to compare to Flacco; however, as we delve deeper, Manning’s contract starkly differs from Brees’s, so each deal will have a differing effect on its team’s salary cap structure.

 

Considering Manning’s age (he enters his age-37 year in 2013) and his risky medical history, the Broncos took a cautious pay-as-you-go measure to his five year contract.  His second and third year salaries are only guaranteed if he passes a physical on March 13^th, and his fourth and fifth seasons are only guaranteed if he is still on the roster at the end of each previous season.  Even if Manning passes the physical next week, the Broncos can easily cut bait after year three with zero financial repercussions.

On the other hand, the Saints deal with Drew Brees, who enters his age-34 year, involved a prodigious $37 million signing bonus that gets prorated over the life of the contract.  In other words, cutting Brees before the contract ends is virtually impossible from a cap perspective.  Brees has volunteered to restructure his contract to create more space this year for the fiscally precarious Saints, but pushing money to later years is the ultimate “cutting off the nose to spite the face” move.  His three cap hits after 2013 are $18.4, $26.4, and $27.4 million.  There is simply no room to budge.

While the Saints current and future financial situation is dire compared to the Broncos, the underlying commonality is that the large salaries doled out to each player will have an impact on which core players each team can retain.  As a result, both teams could find themselves in “all-in” situations for 2013, but in fairness to the Broncos, they could conceivably make one more push in 2014.

In Denver’s case, they have a slew of key players who are due up for a new contract soon.  Ryan Clady, Eric Decker, and Wesley Woodyard are all entering the last year of their deals, while Von Miller and Demaryius Thomas have only two years remaining.  The latter two players will command mega paydays above $10 million per year.  Older players like DJ Williams and Champ Bailey can come off the books soon to alleviate some of the burden, but Denver is going to have to let some high quality players walk unless they want to stretch themselves thin at other spots.  Trying to pay everyone is a calculated risk that can easily backfire, especially if the team suffers a significant injury or two.  It’s basically the equivalent of trying to ford the river in Oregon Trail. 

 

Don't worry, Broncos fans.  Nobody will drown or die of dysentery as a result, but your team could be taking a major risk by trying to retain all of these key impending free agents.

New Orleans is in a much trickier place.  The Saints are still $5 million over the 2013 salary cap despite restructuring the contracts of Curtis Lofton, David Hawthorne, Jahri Evans, Ben Grubbs, and Marques Colston, all players who just signed last year.  Those moves might create cap space now, but it causes future cap pains.  While restructuring appears to be an immediate help, all it does is procrastinate and exacerbate your problems.  Evans, Grubbs, and Colston will all be in their 30s next year and guaranteed to be on the roster (thanks to the restructures) simply because of their large dead money totals if cut.   Furthermore, their 2014 cap situation is even worse than 2013, and that’s before even worrying about re-signing impending free agent Jimmy Graham, the team’s best young commodity.  And this isn’t even taking into account the glaring holes and ineptitude on the defensive side of the ball.

Jump to Conclusions Mat

It is still too early to truly tell if the growing bubble will eventually burst for certain teams or if the market will adjust accordingly, thus pinching pennies out of the lesser heralded positions and players.  The point remains, however, that front offices across the NFL are going to have to perform extra due diligence when pondering these pricy quarterback investments, especially if quarterback salaries continue grow at a rate superior to team salary caps.

For the handful of top franchise quarterbacks, teams likely do not have a choice.  For Green Bay, an organization known for never overpaying free agents, they will be forced into giving Aaron Rodgers a king’s ransom simply because the opportunity cost of letting him walk is too high, even if he wants close to $25 million per year. 

But what about the starting caliber quarterbacks who are not at a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level?  Will they make $15-16 million per year?  Or more appropriately, will they deserve that?  Will teams be virtually powerless and not have a choice but to pay them?  This is especially relevant for average QBs such as Josh Freeman (free agent in 2014), Andy Dalton (2015), Christian Ponder (2015), and Sam Bradford (2016).  That might actually be the true litmus test, especially if one team shells out closer to the $18 million range if one of those quarterbacks happens to post a career year right before free agency a la Flacco.  Personally, I do not think those players are worth anywhere from 1/8 to 1/7 of a team’s cap, but with the high level of difficulty in finding and developing legitimate starting quarterbacks, some franchises will naturally disagree.

The domino effect of this will be the extra added emphasis on sound drafting, something a wisely run franchise like Green Bay already does because rookie contracts are far cheaper than free agent contracts.  For front offices, one of the many positives of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is the rookie wage scale which pays higher picks at a much lower rate than in the past.  Another caveat is that rookies cannot restructure or get extensions until after year three.  For a team like Seattle, that means Russell Wilson will be making less than $1 million for the next two years.  For San Francisco and Houston, it means elite pass rushers Aldon Smith and JJ Watt will be making under $4 million this season, a third of what QB bust Mark Sanchez makes and a quarter of what fellow pass rusher Mario Williams will make.  Meanwhile teams like the Saints, which have not had great success drafting cost-efficient players the last few years, are finding themselves as a giant bubble waiting to burst in Rev. Run’s bathtub because of bloated contracts.  Then again, the Saints did win a Super Bowl in the process.  For that, I will leave Saints fans a Rev. Run quote in case they are perturbed at their grim future: “When you’re grateful, you have no time to be mad or hateful.”

Stickin' It to Vegas -- Week 2

Bucs at Giants (-8.5): Giants win and cover

Cardinals at Patriots (-12.5): Patriots win and cover

Vikings at Colts (-2.5): Vikings win and cover

Saints at Panthers (pickem): Saints

Chiefs at Bills (-3): Bills win and cover

Ravens at Eagles (-2.5): Ravens win and cover 

Raiders (-1) at Dolphins: Raiders win and cover

Browns at Bengals (-10): Bengals win; Browns cover

Texans (-8) at Jaguars: Texans win and cover

Cowboys (-1.5) at Seahawks: Seahawks win and cover

Redskins at Rams (-1): Redskins win and cover

Jets at Steelers (-6): Steelers win and cover

Titans at Chargers (-4.5): Chargers win; Titans cover

Lions at 49ers (-4.5): Niners win and cover

Broncos at Falcons (-3): Falcons win and cover

Week 1 Power Rankings

Power Rankings are kind of stupid.  They might be a bigger waste of time than sitting through two hours of a M. Night Shyamalan movie just to see a shitty cliffhanger.  The only thing more stupid, however, is how the Power Rankings people act like sheep.

In my crazy mission to watch every game, I'm going to do a Power Rankings list each week based off the actual game tape.  If a good team looks like crap, they're going to be rated as if they are crap and vice versa.  The rankings will be based off the cumulative effort up until that point in the season.  A mild consideration will be in place for teams with significant losses due to injury.  Some of the rankings might raise a few eyebrows, but remember, this is based off of the actual games and not a bunch of "what ifs" and "should have beens."

After the first week of games, here's how I see things:


1) San Francisco 49ers

2) Washington Redskins

3) New England Patriots

4) Baltimore Ravens

5) Atlanta Falcons

6) Denver Broncos

7) New York Jets

8) Dallas Cowboys

9) Chicago Bears

10) Houston Texans

11) Green Bay Packers

12) Pittsburgh Steelers

13) Detroit Lions

14) San Diego Chargers

15) Minnesota Vikings

16) New York Giants

17) Arizona Cardinals

18) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

19) New Orleans Saints

20) Seattle Seahawks

21) Jacksonville Jaguars

22) Tennessee Titans

23) Philadelphia Eagles

24) Cincinnati Bengals

25) Kansas City Chiefs

26) Carolina Panthers

27) Miami Dolphins

28) Indianapolis Colts

29) St. Louis Rams

30) Buffalo Bills

31) Oakland Raiders

32) Cleveland Browns

Stickin' It to Vegas -- Week 2's Thursday Night Games

I took it on the chin in Week 1.  I will have the straight ups and spread picks updated on Sunday when I have more time.  Here's a look at tonight's game:

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

What to look for:  

- The Chicago Bears had their way with a weak Colts defense last Sunday.  Jay Cutler connected to Brandon Marshall at will and was able to hit his receivers at all levels of the field.  20 yard completions came naturally.  The Matt Forte / Michael Bush combo was a force.  The defensive line forced Andrew Luck to repeatedly adjust in the pocket.

I expect Cutler to be able to move the ball easily against the Packers mediocre defense.  The Green Bay defensive backfield let Alex Smith have his way with them, as the corners played too far off their men.  A great neutralizer is Clay Matthews's pass rushing ability.  Facing a weak offensive line, he should have his way with J'Marcus Webb.  This could inhibit a few of Cutler's intermediate and deep passing chances.

- Green Bay had an off week, and Aaron Rodgers surprisingly had little success with the deep throws he normally hits.  While the Bears have a solid defense, they are not in San Francisco's echelon, and I don't know if it is even close.  The Packers running game was absolutely shut down last week, but it had more to do with the 49ers than with Cedric Benson.

Even without Greg Jennings, look for Aaron Rodgers to have his way with this defense.  That being said, Jay Cutler will go toe-to-toe with him until the end of the game.  I predict Cutler will make a costly late turnover as he tries to sneak a ball in there that he shouldn't.  I like a bounce-back effort from the Packers and a victory, but I'm taking the Bears with the points here.

Prediction:  Packers 27, Bears 24

32 Teams, 32 Thoughts -- Week 1

Yep, that's right.  I'm watching EVERY NFL game this season.  It will take up most of my free time as well as my bed time, but as the Beastie Boys once said, "No sleep til Brooklyn."  Here's my thoughts on every team in their first game:


49ers vs. Packers
-Wow, what an impressive performance.  That is definitely the fastest, most physical, and most athletic defense in the league.  They boast top end talent at every level of the defense and did not surrender any big pass plays from Aaron Rodgers – no easy feat.

The Niners have a real meat and potatoes offense.  The offensive line is probably the biggest unit in the league, and I’m a big fan of their fullback Miller.  Alex Smith had probably the second best game of his career.  He’ll never threaten defenses deep due to his limited arm, but he made all the safe throws, did not turn it over, and converted twice in the red zone, one of the lone weaknesses of last year’s team.  He’s someone you need to blitz because he has a tendency to flush out of the pocket or take a safe sack.  While he has the legs to scramble, he is not very accurate on the move.

-Perhaps the game plan did not call for many shots down the field in order to slow down the 49ers pass rush, but they had little success when they did attempt it.  A 30+ yard pass play to James Jones was called off due to an offensive pass interference that he did not even need to do to get the catch.  The Niners were still able to generate a good amount of pressure, yet Rodgers was still able to elude a few would-be sacks on about 28 other NFL QBs.

The defensive backs could be a cause for concern again.  I felt they played with too much of a cushion, especially on a guy like Crabtree who is not a deep threat and against a QB lacking arm talent.  After a misleadingly “down” season in terms of sacks, Clay Matthews showed why he is one of the best in the game.  He bull rushed and bent the edge on Joe Staley for a pair of sacks.

Panthers vs. Bucs

-Call it a perfect storm for the Panthers on Sunday.  The run game was absolutely squashed and it put the offense in a lot of bad spots.  The backs were continuously met in the backfield, and it put them in a lot of 3^rd and longs.  No wonder why they converted only two of ten third down opportunities.  The game was never out of reach, but they continually shot themselves in the foot.  Cam Newton’s first INT was a momentum killer.  Joe Adams just had a nice punt return that put the team in Bucs territory.  The very next play, Newton tried to laser a ball in around multiple defenders.  The ball got broken up, and Ronde Barber was able to intercept it and return it to Panthers territory.  Before the first pick, Newton looked like his old self.  He did not step into his throw on the second pick, but he looked fabulous in the first half.

The run defense looks improved, but someone besides Charles Johnson will need step up in pass rushing this year because the secondary is not good enough to make up for it.  It could be a major cause for concern if opposing offenses focus on double-teaming Johnson.

-What a methodical offense.  Josh Freeman more than lived up to his reputation as a dink and dunker.  Of his 16 completions, a whopping 9 went to running backs and fullbacks.  The Greg Schiano offense was run, run, and run.  And when they don’t run, they play-action it.  The mindset of this offense is to dominate time of possession and eventually break the defense’s will with the run.  The strategy clearly worked (37+ minutes of TOP), and I think they can get away with it early in the year because players are still not in top shape and they play in the South Florida heat and humidity.  The Panthers clearly looked worn out at the end.

I just question if they have the defensive talent to support this style of play later in the season. That being said, Gerald McCoy showed why he was a former top 5 pick.  He is extremely quick against guards in the run and pass.  He absolutely dominated Panthers guards Aminu Silatolu and Jeff Hangartner.  Rookie linebacker Lavonte David was flying around as well.

Patriots vs. Titans

-The offense looks about as smooth as ever.  Brandon Lloyd ended up with respectable numbers, but he and Brady could not connect on a few deep throws.  It will come in time.  Stevan Ridley looks like a real game-changer on offense, however.  He’s physical, quick, and has speed to get to the outside.  He had great success on a few toss sweeps and was able to get to the second level.  He is a major upgrade over BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  Nate Solder could be a liability in pass protection, but he looked very athletic in run-blocking.  Logan Mankins did not have his best day but gets a free pass from me.

The defense looks better than last year.  Rookie Chandler Jones uses his hands extremely well for a young player and certainly looks the part.  The key for the defense will be the sustained health of Pat Chung and Ras-I Dowling, two injury prone players in the secondary.

-Jake Locker has an absolute laser.  He definitely had one of the 10 strongest arms I saw.  He is also effective at making plays with his feet.  The stat line shows a good completion percentage, but when he misses, he misses bad.  The offensive line did Chris Johnson no favors, but he still looks off.  It might be only one game, but he does not scare defenses.

The Titans have kind of a no-name defense, but Kamerion Wimbley was a great offseason addition.  He showed a great dip move off the edge and hunted down Brady for a sack.

Bills vs. Jets

-Sunday was probably a worst case scenario for a team who was the offseason media darling.  To the average fan, almost no quarterback gets misevaluated and overly praised than Ryan Fitzpatrick.  He has a terribly weak arm, makes poor decisions, and is the product of a quick passing attack.  The pick six to Cromartie in trap coverage revealed how he has a tendency to predetermine his throws.  CJ Spiller is an upgrade over the more heralded Fred Jackson.  Watch out when he gets to the second level – true home run threat.

The secondary got abused, even underrated free safety Jairus Byrd.  On the bright side, the run defense will finally not be an issue this year and Mario Williams will have 15 games better than that this year.

-The offense shocked everyone with how sharp it was.  Sanchez made a Favre-esque shovel pass early in the game that Jeff Cumberland did not expect, thus leading to a turnover.  He remarkably bounced back, however, utilizing his signature pump fake to perfection.  The offensive staff really made it a point to abuse the rookie corner Stephon Gilmore as well as nickel corner Leodis McKelvin.  The offensive line did an outstanding job in pass protection, so the key will be to see how he fares against a stiff pass rush.  Stephen Hill made an immediate impact and game-to-game consistency is something to look for going forward.

The defensive linemen did not generate a lot of pressure, but the unit as a whole hit Fitzpatrick a number of times.  The cornerback trio of Revis, Cromartie, and Wilson showed why they are the best in the business, as each corner had an interception.  They took their foot off the pedal as the game go out of hand, but speed backs could be a recurring sore spot this year.

Bengals vs. Ravens

-Speaking of getting a free pass, how about Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals, who are now 3-7 in their last 10 games.  In those 10 games, Dalton is sporting and 8:10 TD:INT ratio.  How much upside does Dalton have?  For a second year guy, he is pretty old (turns 25 next month).  QBs don’t peak until their late 20s, but it could be a long-term concern.  AJ Green is an absolute force, but someone else will need to step up to take the pressure off of him.  Perhaps the unexpected Andrew Hawkins is that guy, as he showed amazing run after the catch ability.

The secondary was in rough shape on Monday, but it should improve as Leon Hall works his way back to full strength and when rookie corner Dre Kirkpatrick returns.  Speaking of returning, Carlos Dunlap will help the pass rush to team up with impressive interior rusher Geno Atkins.  The Bengals have a good amount of young talent, but I have had a feeling all along that this will be a slide back year.

-Consider me one of the biggest Joe Flacco critics around, but he looked incredible.  With his arm strength, he can make throws that only about two or three other QBs can make.  The touchdown to Anquan Boldin was a clear illustration of that, as he leaned back against a blitz and tossed it 40 yards in the air and on the money.  It is only one game, but he looks a little more comfortable when facing pressure.  He’ll be tested against Philly this week.  The no-huddle gave Cincinnati fits.  It will be interesting to see how teams prepare for it this season.

The defense certainly misses Suggs, but they blitzed to perfection on Monday.  They surely carry the reputation as one of the hardest hitting teams in the league.  It’s almost downright scary seeing how violent the defense can be.

Chargers vs. Raiders

-Heading into the season, I was very skeptical they would make the playoffs.  If Rivers was not hurt like he claimed last year, it made me worry…his deep throws lacked oomph and led to too many interceptions.  I also thought the defense lacked any real impact players.  One game does not change my mind, especially against Oakland (who I believe is a 5-6 win team), but there is reason for hope.  Despite missing their best offensive weapon, Ryan Mathews, they were still able to move the ball despite averaging 1.6 yards a rush.  Norv Turner used the screen game to perfection, attempted to use misdirection in the run game to keep the Raiders honest, and Rivers made the necessary throws to win the game.

The defense was better than expected, especially in terms of rush defense and pass rush.  Shaun Phillips looks primed for a bounce back year and Melvin Ingram has an incredible short burst.

-Oakland Raiders:  The kings of stubbing their toes.  I don’t know what it is, but year in and year out they kill themselves with penalties and ineptitude.  Then when the long snapper gets hurt, it makes you think they’re cursed.  In their defense, it might not be fair to Palmer that he was missing his number one target in Denarius Moore as well as Jacoby Ford.  It forced him into being a checkdown artist.  Either way, all the offseason talk about how his zip is back seems like malarkey.  That ball floats in the intermediate zones.  Look for a lot of interceptions this year.

The defense actually looked better than I expected.  I knew they had an impressive front four, but they did not get gashed too bad in the air and forced a lot of field goals.  They weren’t the reason why they lost last night.

Colts vs. Bears

-Andrew Luck’s first INT was underthrown.  Reggie Wayne made at least three spectacular grabs, two of which were one-handed.  Luck shows a great cadence in his hard count and is smooth in pocket movement (outlined in my preseason rookie QBs article).  For such a big guy, he is way more nimble with his feet than he should be.  Luck is excellent at stepping up in the pocket to extend plays and convert passes.  Donald Brown dropped a pair of easy passes, one of which that would have led to an early third down conversion.

They’re really going to need Dwight Freeney (who left early with injury) and Robert Mathis to stay healthy if they do not want to be a bottom rung defense.  Not having ILB Pat Angerer to help against the run is bad enough.

-From the get go, the protection up front was horrible as expected, but Cutler heated up when Freeney left the game with injury.  Cutler made a living in the 15-25 yard range thanks to his rocket arm.  The referees called a lot of pass interference penalties, but Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler’s old best friend, legitimately drew 2-3 calls.  Cutler’s 42 yard TD pass to Alshon Jeffery was a thing of beauty.  That ball traveled 60 yards in the air and right on the money.

On defense, rookie Shea McClellin comes in at Julius Peppers’s RDE spot and Peppers kicks inside to LDT.  It’s not like the Colts tout anyone special on their offensive line, but the pass rush looked prominent.  They continually forced Andrew Luck to step up in the pocket.  Going into the season, I told myself that the Bears would be better than the Lions this year.  I like where I stand.

Jaguars vs. Vikings

-Blaine Gabbert has made strides as a passer.  However, he missed a complete gimme touchdown early to Justin Blackmon on first and goal.  He overthrew Blackmon and the team had to settle for a field goal.  I was a bit surprised Blackmon did not have a bigger impact in the game, but he did eventually have a vital two point conversion late in regulation.  Gabbert built a poor reputation last year for crumbling in a muddy pocket.  He did have a few relapses this game, but he appeared to improve from last year.  The offensive design also helped mask some of those weaknesses.  He threw various types of screens, a shovel pass, and had many designed quick throws.  It will be interesting to see if defenses wise up to the quick strike attack and force Gabbert to hang in there longer and connect on deeper passes.  Maurice Jones-Drew wasn’t able to bust any big runs, but he should round into form soon.  He still laid a beating on a few DBs.

The defense wasn’t able to generate much of a pass rush at all and will likely continue to be an issue as the season progresses.

-Percy Harvin is a wonder.  He can cut on a dime, line up anywhere in any formation, refuses to go down, and issues a punishment on back end players.  He’s like a Swiss Army knife...definitely the most dangerous player in the league after the catch.  Nobody would have every known Adrian Peterson was coming off a torn ACL.  The lateral quickness is still certainly there, and he busted a big run in overtime to set up the winning field goal.  Between Peterson, Harvin, and Kyle Rudolph, the offense has three young mega weapons so long as Christian Ponder continues to develop.  He had a stronger arm than I remember (though nothing spectacular), but I didn’t think he looked as good as his stat line.

The defense adjusted well to the Jaguars quick strike attack.  Linemen were able to get their hands on a few telegraphed passes and linebackers and safeties began to anticipate short routes.  Brian Robison impressed as Jared Allen’s bookend, issuing a few QB hits as well as a pass deflection.  The defensive backs were rarely challenged, but former second rounder Chris Cook was beat deep on a late touchdown that appeared to be the game-winner.  He and the rest of the defensive back group will be tested with the top end QBs within the division.

Dolphins vs. Texans

-The Dolphins actually played reasonably well at first, notably Reggie Bush on offense.  I have long been a critic, but he has established himself as a between the tackles runner.  He has always been quick, but he looks a lot more decisive now and dances a whole lot less.  The defensive line did a great job to stop Arian Foster when he ran between the tackles.  Randy Starks played well against the run and pass and Paul Soliai looked great in the run game.  The game got out of hand because of turnovers.  The first turnover was an interception, but it was hard to tell if the blame falls on the QB or receiver.  Maybe it was just a great play by Jonathan Joseph.  Following that, there were two tipped ball interceptions and a fumble.  This was all in the first half.

Even before Marcus Thigpen’s punt return for TD, I liked the way he ran on kickoffs.  I was actually mildly surprised the TD came via punt return and not kick return.  He was better getting to top speed quickly instead of having great lateral quickness.

-The Texans got off to a sluggish start, especially the run defense.  Offensively, they ran well on the outside zone runs and capitalized on turnovers when given a short field.  Even though he is kind of stiff, I like the way Matt Schaub slide steps in the pocket to create space before a pass.  He does not have great zip, but he demonstrates great timing.  He looks fully healthy from last season’s injury.

JJ Watt is an absolute monster.  He was consistently winning at the point of attack, batted balls down, sacked the QB, and even lined up at RDE where he drew a holding penalty on Jake Long.

Falcons vs. Chiefs

-Julio Jones, yikes.  The Falcons ran two good but blatant “pick” plays early in the game, one of which resulted in Jones’s second TD.  I’ve seen a lot of these plays in preseason and in Week 1.  It will be interesting if the referees catch on to this.  I found it interesting that the Falcons (unofficially) had seven snaps inside the 10 yard line and did not run once.  That is an indictment on Michael Turner.

It was a close game until Ryan Succop missed a game-tying field goal in the 3^rd quarter.  Ryan responded with a long TD drive then another one play drive because Matt Cassel fumbled inside his own 10.  It went from potentially a tie game to a 17 point blowout in the blink of an eye.  It got worse when Cassel threw a pick on the next two drives.  Game over.  John Abraham can still bend the edge in his 13^th season.  I’m a fan of safety William Moore.  He saved a big run, dove for an interception, and read a bootleg to force Cassel into a horrendous 3^rd down throw.  I’m real bummed that CB Brent Grimes is out for the year.

-Matt Cassel started out hot, but he really loops the ball in the intermediate zones and elevates the ball too much at times.  He could have easily had 2-3 more interceptions due to that in addition to his poor decision-making.  Eric Winston made a nice block on a big Jamaal Charles run that could have been a long touchdown had safety William Moore not made him stumble and loose acceleration.  Not just on that play, but I liked the way the receivers helped out in the blocking game.  It helped spring that from a 20 yard run to a 40+ yard run.

The Chiefs were really missing some key players on defense -- Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, and Kendrick Lewis.  The defense didn’t really pressure Ryan much, but Justin Houston could emerge as a good complement to Hali.  He had a respectable rookie year last year and generated some good pressure on Ryan at times.

Eagles vs. Browns

-Vick started out hot (6/6) then makes an awful decision by throwing across his body.  DeMeco Ryans is an instant difference-maker for the run defense, a much needed upgrade headed into this year.  This was a real sloppy game by Eagles offense…penalties a plenty, Vick holding onto ball too long, botched snap, McCoy fumble, etc.  In Vick’s second pick, he had plenty of time, but his initial reads weren’t open.  He then forced it late to Harbor and the linebacker read his eyes to deflect it up for the INT.  Vick’s third interception was silly…he threw it sidearm when he didn’t need too.  The ball placement was consequently off to his target.  It was too high and popped up into the air for INT.  The last INT was another forced pass.  He never looked off his primary read and D’Qwell Jackson jumped it…could have easily been the back breaker if not for the last drive.

At one point, they called 43 passes to only 16 runs.  As good as DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are, Andy Reid has to realize that LeSean McCoy is the best offensive player on the team.  No running back in the league has his lateral quickness.

-Ouch for Brandon Weeden.  Early in the game, he overthrows Massaquoi for an easy 20-25 yard touchdown down sideline.  He is off the hook for the first INT because Greg Little dropped a pass near the goal line.  Travis Benjamin got outmuscled on a deep pass for second INT, but Rogers-Cromartie was with him in stride the whole time…Weeden saw single high safety and opportunity to throw, but it just wasn’t there.  The third pick was pretty brutal.  The route combination was kind of poor as two receivers were running vertically in the same vicinity, but he forced the ball for no reason…he needs to learn that he’s not tossing it up to Justin Blackmon against a D-I corner.  I have no clue what he was doing with the last pick.  Besides the four interceptions (if you can even say that at all), it was a downright brutal game for the rookie QB. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz got a rude awakening to the NFL.  He was repeatedly rag-dolled by Jason Babin.  Rough day for Trent Richardson…couldn’t get to the second level at all, longest run was 9 yards, and he botched an exchange.  He’s still working his way back to health, so it’s something to monitor next week and beyond.

If there is a positive, the Browns defensive line played pretty well as well as the linebackers.  They got reasonable pressure on Vick and held McCoy to only one 20+ yard run.

Rams vs. Lions

-The initial reading of final score suggests the offense did well enough to win but that the defense let the team down…definitely not the case.  The defense had a pick six and set up team in good field position on another field goal.  Another field goal drive started in Lions territory.  They’re not the reason why they lost.  That being said, Bradford zipped a few nice passes on the drive for the go ahead field goal.  On the lone offensive TD drive, he had a nice bucket throw to Brandon Gibson but was unsuccessful on the few other chances down the field otherwise, underthrowing a potential 70+ yard touchdown.  The Rams offensive line was definitely one of the five worst I saw…they gave Steven Jackson zero room to run and it will only get worse now that they will be without their left tackle and center for extended time.  It’s never easy going up against the Lions front four, but the Rams haven’t upgraded their line much if at all from last year.

-Maybe the microphones were closer to the field in this game, but the ball just thuds into the receivers bodies when Stafford throws it…it’s amazing.  He does a good job recognizing the hot read off blitz.  However, he did leave a few balls high, and one of his interceptions looked like a predetermined throw to Megatron. His receivers did not do him any favors on some passes, however…a few dropped passes in there.  Stafford did look phenomenal on the game-winning drive, as he had three 20+ yard passes before the dump off to Kevin Smith.

Corey Williams got great inside pressure even before his strip sack.  The defensive line continually got penetration on runs and linebackers consistently shot through the gaps.  Ndamukong Suh made two pretty spectacular plays, one against the run and one against the pass.  On the run stop, he got penetration and threw the 230 lbs. Jackson to the ground with one arm.  On a sack, he split a double team to get to Sam Bradford.

Redskins vs. Saints

-I saw countless WR screens on the first drive with RGIII in shotgun on nearly every snap.  I don’t think Redskins fans could have been any happier than that 88 yard TD pass to Pierre Garcon.  Not only was it a great play, it was Griffin’s first TD pass and it was the first run after catch TD they had seen in two seasons.  The pass was a tad high, but Garcon made a great catch in stride and he was Griffin’s second read.  Impressive stuff.  Even more impressive was the first play of the second quarter.  On a bootleg to his left, RGIII is pressured by free safety Malcolm Jenkins.  Griffin stiff arms Jenkins, goes back to his right, and throws on the run for a 26 yard completion on the sideline.  The ball travels 36 yards in the air!  The first TD was great, but that play was the “holy shit, this guy has arrived” kind of play.  I love the way RGIII sells the ball fake on bootlegs and in the spread option…those plays and formations are going to be a headache for opposing defenses.  I understand that the coaching staff places a lot of value on ball security, but Alfred Morris came off as a bit of a plodder…in my opinion, he is better suited to be a clock-killing back.  Let Royster get the early carries and have Helu as the passing down back.

I don’t profess to be a Special Teams expert, but I watched the “All-22” and have no idea what the hell Reed Doughty was doing on that blocked punt.  Kudos to Jim Haslett for dialing up a great defensive game plan.  DeAngelo Hall had a great day blitzing from the slot…he continuously got pressure.  Ryan Kerrigan and Barry Cofield also had a good day getting pressure up front.  All in all, the Redskins were the second best team I saw in Week 1.

-I don’t give a crap what the box score says; the Saints got handled on Sunday and the game was never as close as it suggests.  They scored a borderline garbage time TD and had a blocked punt for a score.  Take those two away and they generated 18 real offensive points.  It goes without saying, but Jimmy Graham is a monster.  On his first TD, London Fletcher could not have covered him any better, but he just played basketball on him and got above the rim for the catch.  That was definitely one of those great defense better offense type of plays.  However, Drew Brees looked out of rhythm all day long.  He was under duress many times but regardless was far less accurate than normal.  I just looked at his box score and it was even worse than I had anticipated – less than 50% completions.

I don’t think the defense was ready for what the Redskins threw at them.  Either way, they need someone else besides Will Smith to step up in the pass rush game because Steve Spagnuolo is not a heavy blitzing coordinator like Gregg Williams.  Smith was stonewalled by Trent Williams and hardly anyone generated pressure.  I’m quite confident they will respond from this game, but the Saints were one of the most disappointing teams of Week 1.  I just expected more from a team with a chip on its shoulder playing behind one of the league’s most hostile environments.

Steelers vs. Broncos

-The Steelers appeared to use a traditional fullback more often than in the past.  I saw a lot more quick throws, especially to Brown to utilize RAC ability.  In the first half, the protection was actually good considering the opponent.  Part of that is attributed to the quick passing attack, however.  I counted five red zone targets for Heath Miller.  The third one he was wide open in the end zone, but Roethlisberger didn’t put any air under it.  Miller was targeted a fourth time in the 2 minute drill and this time Roethlisberger was able to connect for the TD.  The Steelers really liked using route combinations with Miller and Mike Wallace down near the goal line.  Doug Legursky did an adequate job filling in for Maurkice Pouncey late in the 2010 Playoffs, but boy was he bad when he filled in for Ramon Foster.  He was constantly overwhelmed in pass protection.  I can see why some of the Fantasy Football gurus prefer Jonathan Dwyer over Isaac Redman; Dwyer does a much better job of gaining yards after contact.  Keep Redman as the passing down back.

A lot of Steelers talk in the offseason centered around if the defense was getting too old.  People will probably point to the Demaryius Thomas touchdown as proof that the defense is slowing down.  They might be right on that play, but I thought they still played well enough for most of the game.  Things only went downhill when the Broncos went no-huddle.  For a team that relies on creative defensive play-calling and blitzes, the no-huddle can have a crippling effect because it puts you on your heels and gives less time to dial up the proper play.  It could be a concern down the road, but for now just move on because there are probably only 2-3 QBs who can run the no-huddle on Manning’s level.

-Peyton Manning is still the smartest QB in the game.  We all knew the arm strength wouldn’t be all there (and he never had a rocket to begin with), but he didn’t consistently throw a tight spiral early in the game…there were some wobblers in there.  I don’t think I have ever seen more illegal formation penalties in a game, and that goes for both offenses.  On the Demaryius Thomas 71 yard TD, both Ryan Clady and Zane Beadles are able to get a block on safeties Troy Polamalu and Ryan Mundy to spring him free.  You’re not going to catch Thomas in the open field.  The Broncos never had a great deal of success running the ball, nobody ever does against the Steelers, but there was a lot more room to run when they went to the no-huddle in the 4^th quarter.  In the broadcast, Cris Collinsworth astutely noted that Manning would check to a run anytime he saw a two deep safety look; when a safety came down to the box, he checked to a pass.

Obviously Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are two of the best bookends in the game, but I liked what I saw from rookie defensive lineman Derek Wolfe.  He did a good job operating against guards in passing situations.  You have to give the defensive backs credit for not really allowing any big passing plays.  When Mike Wallace’s longest catch is 14 yards, you’re doing something right.

Cowboys vs. Giants

- This was a really sloppy game from both sides.  For two teams that usually engage in high stakes shootouts, this was a snore.  Regardless, Tony Romo proved why he is a Harry Houdini-esque escape artist.  He evaded many a sack and turned it into some major positive yardage.  Kevin Ogletree awoke from a career long slumber to carve up the Giants.  Despite a fluky 40+ yard run (seriously, it looked like a high school play), DeMarco Murray still ran effectively.

The biggest difference in the defense this year is the addition of its two cover corners – rookie Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr.  By and large, rookie cornerbacks struggle to make the adjustment to the NFL.  Receivers are better, routes are run more efficiently, coverages are more complex, etc.   For a guy playing in his first game while matched mostly up against Hakeem Nicks, he did a fabulous job.  Carr played a solid game himself as well, but I was disappointed he missed a chance at an easy interception.  On a long completion to Domenik Hixon, Carr could have easily taken down the jump ball had he not mistimed his jump.  DeMarcus Ware’s performance showed that he wants to have a death grip on the term “best pass rusher in the league.”

-Wednesday was a real disappointing night for the defending champs.  They became the first defending champs to lose the inaugural game since NBC started the “Kickoff Game” nearly a decade ago.  Eli Manning still looked sharp as ever, but his offensive line did him zero favors.  He did a great job of shrugging it off last year, but that unit is absolutely dreadful; the worst part is I think it is a worse unit than last year.  Ahmad Bradshaw showed why he is one of the toughest backs in the league.  He was still able to grind out some yardage and had an impressive touchdown to keep the Giants in the game.  I was not surprised to hear reports that Hakeem Nicks is still recovering from his injury.  He did not look like he was running at full speed. 

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

- Finally it was time for me to see the Russell Wilson hubbub from the past two months.  Like most rookies, you could see the flashes of why he was praised so much.  On a second half TD to Sidney Rice, he quickly worked through two progressions before finding Rice in the end zone.  He is also pretty elusive in the pocket; however, sometimes he bailed on the play too quickly, especially versus the blitz.  Russell Wilson’s pick at the end of the half was misleading…he was pretty much just tossing it up deep for a prayer to get into field goal range.  Anyway, he led his team down for the winning drive but was plagued by two killer drops.  Marshawn Lynch didn’t break any substantial runs, but he was able to push the pile and end up with an OK stat line.

I was a big fan of Seattle’s defense.  The Cardinals trot out one of the league’s worst offensive lines, but Seattle completely squashed their running game.  Red Bryant, Chris Clemons, Jason Jones, and Brandon Mebane do a great job of clogging running lanes.  Speaking of Chris Clemons, he is one of the more underrated pass rushers in the game.  He does a great job bending the edge and jarred the ball loose twice on John Skelton.  For some reason the first swat was ruled an incomplete pass; the second swat forced a fumble that Arizona unfortunately recovered.  Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman did a respectable job on Larry Fitzgerald until the final drive.  Leon Washington showcased his extraordinary return skills, nearly sending both a kick and a punt return to the house.  Nonetheless, both returns set up two separate Seahawks scores.

-John Skelton is an interesting quarterback.  He can be completely erratic at times or make pretty poor decisions, but he can also sling the rock to move the ball down the field.  With no running game whatsoever, he was still able to keep his team in the game.  That being said, he did a pretty poor job with decision-making when flushed out of the pocket.  On one specific play, he was trying to throw the ball away but kept it too close to the sidelines.  It resulted in an athletic interception by Richard Sherman.  After getting hurt with an ankle sprain late, Kevin Kolb came in and led his team to what ended up being the game-winning TD.  For a guy maligned for his poor ability against pressure and blitzes, he made a key throw to Larry Fitzgerald for about 20 yards.  He hit Fitzgerald right from where the blitz came.

On defense, I’m a big fan of linemen Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett.  Campbell has the most freakish length of any 3-4 defensive end in the league.  He can get penetration on passing downs and can use his amazing wingspan to bat down passes.  On running downs, he moves incredibly well down the line of scrimmage to take away stretch plays.  Dockett was incredible at shooting through gaps and disrupting the runner as well as the passer.  Even though he did not have a big run, I think Patrick Peterson is one of the two best punt returners in the league.  He has such amazing vision, change of direction, and top end speed.  He still needs to improve as a cover corner, however.  He picked up two pass interference penalties with one that would have fans pointing the finger at him if the team lost.

Stickin' It to Vegas -- Week 1

After removing the proverbial egg on my face due to the Kickoff Game predictions, it is time to rebound from my poor start.  Going through each game, I will pick the overall winner and the spread winner.  Currently, I am 0-1 in winners and 0-1 against the spread.

I know this is posted on Monday, which makes the average person believe these picks are about as compromised as Onterrio Smith's urine sample, but I did have my picks in place prior to Sunday's games.  On to the picks...

Colts at Bears (-10): Bears win; Colts with the points

Eagles (-9) at Browns: Eagles win and cover

Bills at Jets (-3): Jets win and cover

Redskins at Saints (-8.5): Saints win and cover

Patriots (-5.5) at Titans: Patriots win and cover

Jaguars at Vikings (-3.5): Vikings win; Jaguars with the points

Dolphins at Texans (-13): Texans win and cover

Rams at Lions (-8.5): Lions win and cover

Falcons (-2.5) at Chiefs: Falcons win and cover

49ers at Packers (-5): Packers win and cover

Panthers (-3) at Bucs: Panthers win and cover

Seahawks (-3) at Cardinals: Seahawks win and cover

Steelers at Broncos (-2.5): Steelers win and take the points

Bengals at Ravens (-7): Ravens win and cover

Chargers at Raiders (-1): Raiders win and cover

That Visor is Coming Off: Vegas Over/Unders and Season Predictions

(More to come later)


Patriots at 12 wins:  OVER

Jets at 8.5 wins:  UNDER

Bills at 7 wins:  PUSH

Dolphins at 7.5 wins: UNDER (easy money)

Steelers at 10 wins:  OVER

Ravens at 10 wins: PUSH

Bengals at 7.5 wins:  UNDER

Browns at 5.5 wins:  UNDER

Texans at 10 wins:  OVER

Titans at 7 wins:  OVER

Jaguars at 5.5 wins:  OVER

Colts at 5.5 wins:  OVER

Broncos at 9.5 wins:  UNDER

Chiefs at 8 wins:  OVER

Chargers at 9 wins:  UNDER

Raiders at 7 wins:  UNDER

Giants at 9.5 wins:  OVER

Eagles at 10 wins:  PUSH

Cowboys at 8.5 wins:  UNDER

Redskins at 6.5 wins:  OVER

Packers at 12 wins:  PUSH

Lions at 9.5 wins:  UNDER

Bears at 8.5 wins:  OVER

Vikings at 6 wins:  PUSH

Falcons at 9 wins: OVER

Saints at 10 wins:  PUSH

Panthers at 7.5 wins:  OVER

Bucs at 6 wins:  PUSH

49ers at 10 wins:  UNDER

Seahawks at 7 wins:  OVER

Cardinals at 7 wins:  UNDER

Rams at 6 wins:  PUSH


AFC Playoffs
Patriots
Steelers
Texans
Chiefs
Ravens
Broncos

NFC Playoffs
Eagles
Packers
Falcons
Seahawks
Giants
Saints

Super Bowl
Patriots over Falcons

Stickin’ It to Vegas – The Inaugural Edition

Man, do I hate gambling.  For the competitive and prideful person I am, I simply cannot accept the fact that when you go to a casino, you will lose more times than you will win.  Want to play Roulette? You’re going to lose over 52% of the time. Want to play Blackjack? Go ahead, but don’t even think about winning more than 43% of the time unless you’re Rain Man.  Some people enjoy the “thrill” of it all, but for me, the pain of losing carries the weight of a “Biggest Loser” entrant while the joy of winning is as short-lived as a Matthew Perry sitcom.

Then why the heck am I bothering with NFL predictions?  Surely it is a losing battle, right?  For starters, this is all being done with Monopoly money.  Losing here only hurts my pride, not my wallet as well.  Last year, I fought Vegas on the team over/under win predictions.  I ended up 17-13 with a pair of pushes in there too.  I think the mere mentioning that I (slightly) beat Vegas might lead to me having my fingers broken like the guy in the movie “Casino.”

Anyway, with the Kickoff Game tonight, it is time to stick it to Vegas for the next five months.  Here we go…

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Spread: Giants (-3.5)

Over/Under: 45

Key Nuggets:

- Since the Kickoff Game was introduced in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champ is 8-0 and has won the game by five or more points in six of the eight games

- Including the playoff matchup in January 2008, the Giants are 7-2 in the last nine games versus the Cowboys

- Since 2007, the Giants and Cowboys have played each other eleven times.  The teams have combined for more than 45 points on nine occasions.  These games are typically shootouts.  45 is a relatively low number, especially considering the fact that in 2011 New York averaged 24.6 points per game and Dallas averaged 23.1 points.

Prediction:  I’ll take the Giants -3.5 and the over.

Final Score: Giants 31, Cowboys 27

Initial Thoughts on the Rookie QBs

Thanks to some free time and access to all the preseason games, I observed the four first round rookie QBs -- Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden -- in their first ever NFL appearances.  Remember, it's limited action in a meaningless game and a lot can change when real bullets start flying.  Here is my immediate take:

Andrew Luck:  This guy is the real deal.  The first thing that strikes the viewer is how composed he is.  Right off the bat, you can tell he has tremendous football IQ.  The thing that impressed me the most was how well he moved within the pocket.  His offensive line did not do a very good job protecting him, but it did not faze him at all.  He knew when to step up, when to sidestep, and when to abandon the pocket, all with keeping his eyes down the field.  Luck also displayed the ability to go through his progressions.  He looked like a seasoned veteran out there.

As far as physical tools go, he is pretty thickly built.  Unless Luck has a low pain threshold, he will end up being the most durable of all the rookie QBs.  For such a big guy, he moves pretty easily and displayed that on a scramble.  In terms of spinning the ball, I saw a very accurate QB.  Nearly every incompletion was a drop or a throwaway when under duress.  I cannot remember one bad ball thrown.  While he probably has the weakest arm of the four QBs, I would not say that it limits him.  Furthermore, I think he displays such excellent touch on the ball when necessary and that can make it falsely appear that he lacks arm strength.  Overall, I would say he has average arm strength, but his vastly superior quarterback IQ will always compensate for it. 

Most Impressive Play:  1st & 10 at the Rams 33 yard line with 4:08 remaining in the second quarter.  With WR Quan Cosby lined up in the slot, Luck finds Cosby streaking down the seam for a 32 yard gain.  The inside linebacker is in trail coverage with deep safeties over the top.  Luck puts the absolute perfect amount of touch on the ball, and places it on Cosby's back shoulder, purposely on the opposite side of the trailing LB.  The ball travels 28 yards in the air and sets the Colts up at the goal line.

Robert Griffin III:  What I saw was a guy who looked comfortable being in charge.  RGIII has a very smooth throwing motion, almost appearing nonchalant in the process.  He flicks the ball out with pretty nice zip and can toss the ball outside the numbers.

In terms of the offensive structure, he fits Shanahan's scheme like a glove.  The Redskins were starting three replacement linemen in the game, so they weren't able to really establish the run when Griffin was in the game.  However, you can tell that running the stretch zone plays will open up a lot of bootleg opportunities.

When asked to pass, Griffin was able to operate from under center and in shotgun.  I thought he was able to go through his progressions well and hit a secondary receiver in stride.  Consequently, he was able to hit a few intermediate passes to Pierre Garcon, who appears to be RGIII's top target this year.  I did not see one poorly thrown ball.

While the offensive line was poor in run blocking, they were very effective in protection.  That being said, I wish they weren't because I was not able to gauge his pocket presence.  Maybe it was the design of some quick throws or his ability to get rid of the ball in time, but I did not see one instance where he was necessitated to step up or to the side while in the pocket.  Additionally, the good protection also prevented me from seeing his running ability.  Consider me impressed overall, but I would give an "Incomplete" grade for his pocket presence.

Most Impressive Play:  1st & 10 at own 43 yard line, 8:20 remaining in the first quarter.  RGIII excellently uses his cadence to draw an offsides from the defense and gets a "free" play.  On a play-action pass, Griffin hits Pierre Garcon for an 18 yard gain over the middle.  The ball travels 18 yards in the air.  What grabbed my attention was how good his play fake was.  He did a great job of selling it, and the linebackers started going downhill to attack the perceived run.  As a result, Griffin has a giant window to flick the ball to Garcon.  While a play-action play usually has an easy read, the fact that he was able to get the defensive line to jump and get the linebackers to take false steps shows off some veteran savvy.

Ryan Tannehill:  This is a big dude.  He's pretty athletic to boot, too.  The second thing I quickly noticed was how often he was operating out of shotgun.  I did not watch Matt Moore at QB, so I cannot tell if that is something new Head Coach Joe Philbin wants to instill in the offense or if it was something unique to Tannehill.

Going back to the athleticism, I thought he did a great job of getting outside the pocket on the bootleg, showing a solid amount of quickness.  I was also impressed with his arm strength and delivery.

I do have a few reservations about Tannehill at the moment.  Primarily, he was the only QB of the four to be playing strictly against the backups.  That being said, he had a pretty unheralded supporting cast to throw to and was able to move the ball down the field with consistency.  Kudos to him.  However, I found his accuracy to be a little suspect at times.  He had a few easy misses in there and did not give the receiver a chance to catch the ball.  While he looked comfortable in the pocket, he did not seem to go through his progressions quite like Griffin or Luck.  That is probably to be expected, however, since he is after all a rookie and originally came to college as a wide receiver.  I can see the long-term tools, namely arm strength and physically looking the part, but I do not know how much impact he can have this year.

Most Impressive Play:  3rd & 11 at own 29 yard line, 8:30 remaining in third quarter.  Tannehill throws a ball that travels 17 yards in the air to Roberto Wallace, who is streaking down along the numbers.  Wallace picks up 20+ yards for the first down.  This might have been the best throw from all four QBs. Without having access to the "All-22" camera for preseason, I cannot be certain on the defensive coverage, but it appeared to be a Cover 2 shell.  Either way, Tannehill is able to zip a tight spiral with enough arc to go over the corner but enough speed to have it arrive before the safety meets the receiver.  The timing, the touch, and the arm strength necessary to pull it off had me saying "Wow!"  That was a throw that some QBs simply cannot make.

Brandon Weeden:  For a guy that turns 29 before the season opener, a Browns fan would hope that Weeden would appear to be the most pro ready quarterback.  I did not see that from him in his first glimpse of action.

There are certainly some things to like about Weeden.  He has a compact throwing motion and seems to have a solid release.  He also has enough arm strength to make a lot of NFL throws.

However, I saw more negatives from him versus the other three QBs.  For starters, I thought he was the least composed QB when it came to being under pressure.  Going against the Detroit Lions front four is no picnic, but he either held onto the ball too long or left the pocket too quickly.  As far as the former, that is what led to a sack and forced fumble he let up.  Weeden appeared to have one too many hitches and it cost him.  I also caught him staring down a receiver on a comeback, and it almost led to a pick six because the cornerback read it all the way.  Lastly, I thought he had the least effective play-action fake of the group.  It did not persuade me, and on film it did not convince the linebackers either.  In my opinion, it did not look like he really extended his arms on the fake and it came off a little haphazard.

Weeden is probably ready to be a non-replacement level starter from the get go and is an upgrade over Colt McCoy, but does he have any upside whatsoever?  If I am a Browns fan, I become even more puzzled at my hapless franchise.  It's the NFL and who the hell knows what could happen, but I would be surprised if he ever becomes an above average QB.

Most Impressive Play:  2nd & 7 at own 43 yard line, 1st quarter.  Weeden connects with WR Travis Benjamin down the left sideline for a huge 32 yard gain.  The ball travels 32 yards in the air.  Weeden recognizes 1 on 1 coverage with Benjamin and drops it perfectly in the bucket for him, placing the ball away from the corner where only Benjamin can get it.  The ball is thrown such that no deep safety could make a play on the ball yet not too far out of bounds that Benjamin cannot get both feet in.  That is not an easy throw, but he executed it flawlessly.