Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Stickin’ It to Vegas – The Inaugural Edition

Man, do I hate gambling.  For the competitive and prideful person I am, I simply cannot accept the fact that when you go to a casino, you will lose more times than you will win.  Want to play Roulette? You’re going to lose over 52% of the time. Want to play Blackjack? Go ahead, but don’t even think about winning more than 43% of the time unless you’re Rain Man.  Some people enjoy the “thrill” of it all, but for me, the pain of losing carries the weight of a “Biggest Loser” entrant while the joy of winning is as short-lived as a Matthew Perry sitcom.

Then why the heck am I bothering with NFL predictions?  Surely it is a losing battle, right?  For starters, this is all being done with Monopoly money.  Losing here only hurts my pride, not my wallet as well.  Last year, I fought Vegas on the team over/under win predictions.  I ended up 17-13 with a pair of pushes in there too.  I think the mere mentioning that I (slightly) beat Vegas might lead to me having my fingers broken like the guy in the movie “Casino.”

Anyway, with the Kickoff Game tonight, it is time to stick it to Vegas for the next five months.  Here we go…

Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Spread: Giants (-3.5)

Over/Under: 45

Key Nuggets:
- Since the Kickoff Game was introduced in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champ is 8-0 and has won the game by five or more points in six of the eight games

- Including the playoff matchup in January 2008, the Giants are 7-2 in the last nine games versus the Cowboys

- Since 2007, the Giants and Cowboys have played each other eleven times.  The teams have combined for more than 45 points on nine occasions.  These games are typically shootouts.  45 is a relatively low number, especially considering the fact that in 2011 New York averaged 24.6 points per game and Dallas averaged 23.1 points.

Prediction:  I’ll take the Giants -3.5 and the over.

Final Score: Giants 31, Cowboys 27

1 comment:

  1. You doing this all season? I bet the over and didn't bet the spread (-4 on bovada) but if forced to, would also go Giants.