New York Jets Pre-Combine Mock Offseason I

With the NFL Combine in full swing and the end of the league year coming at 11:59PM EST Thursday night, now is time for the first New York Jets mock offseason.  In it will include players let go and players that will be brought in while being cautious of cap space.  Since the salary cap is yet to be determined, I have done my best to balance the money saved and money spent budget.

Expiring Contracts (Italics indicates player not projected to be retained):

DE  Shaun Ellis - $3.35MM cap value last season
P  Steve Weatherford
S  Brodney Pool 
FB  Tony Richardson - $912,280 cap value last season
WR  Braylon Edwards
OT  Wayne Hunter
DE  Trevor Pryce - $ 387,059 cap value last season
CB  Antonio Cromartie - $1.695MM cap value last season
LB  Lance Laury - $687,280 cap value last season
WR  Santonio Holmes 
S  Eric Smith - $1,183,280 cap value last season
WR/KR  Brad Smith - $1,766,280 cap value last season
CB  Drew Coleman
QB  Kellen Clemens - $700,000 cap value last season

K  Nick Folk

S  James Ihedigbo

C/G  Rob Turner

$10,681,179 in freed up money

The most interesting name here is Antonio Cromartie.  The Jets paid a heavy price for Cromartie – a 3^rd rounder that escalated to a 2^nd round pick – and will ultimately see him walk.  This one chalks up as one of Tannenbaum’s calculated risks that paid off in the short term but definitely not in the long.  Though he was adequate and an upgrade at the #2 CB position from the 2009 season, the reality is not all of the big names will be able to be kept this offseason.  When it comes down to it, a guy who relies so heavily on athleticism and little on experience and technique might not be one you want to sign to a deal that would keep him until his thirties, especially when you have a 2010 first rounder in Kyle Wilson that you want to see was worth the investment or not.

Brad Smith is going to be a guy that will get overpaid this offseason because one team will think they can make him a larger part of the offense and will thus price themselves out of the Jets range.  That team will be disappointed when they find out that Smith is an excellent role player but not a more central focus.  Furthermore, Special Teams Coach Mike Westhoff has groomed a slew of potent kick returners in his eleven seasons, including guys like Craig Yeast, Chad Morton, Justin Miller, and Leon Washington.

Shaun Ellis was one of the first to clean his locker out after the loss to Pittsburgh, and I don’t think the Jets longest tenured man will be brought back to eek out one more year.  I could easily see him in another uniform on a desperate or newly formed 3-4 defense is in need of a veteran five technique end.

Safety Eric Smith has value on special teams and occasionally makes the big hit, but he makes far too many mistakes in space.  James Ihedigbo possesses similar skills and could be used as a cheaper alternative to Smith...  Laury can have his role replaced by ILB Josh Mauga, whose athleticism will at least help on specials...  Based on his feelings during Hard Knocks, Kellen Clemens wants one more training camp battle.  He won’t get that here.

Predicted Cuts:

DE  Vernon Gholston -$6,273,333 cap value including $2.565MM Roster Bonus - $5,806,667 dead money, $466,666 cap savings

OT  Damien Woody - $4.26MM cap value including $400,000 Workout Bonus - $1.02MM dead money, $3.24MM cap savings [UPDATE 2/28: CUT]

OLB  Bryan Thomas - $3.7MM cap value including $500,000 Bonus - $0 dead money, $3.7MM cap savings

TE  Ben Hartsock - $1.65MM cap value including $50,000 Bonus - $0 dead money, $1.65MM cap savings

QB Eric Ainge - $603,530 cap value including $7,280 Bonus - $41,250 dead money, $562,280 cap savings

OLB  Jason Taylor - $2.275MM cap value - $0 dead money, $2.275MM cap savings

$11,893,946 in freed up money

Vernon Gholston has been a monumental bust and the biggest blemish on GM Mike Tannenbaum’s nearly squeaky clean résumé.  The front office will gladly eat the nearly $6MM in dead money to show him the door...  Damien Woody served as an excellent RT for the past three seasons, but an Achilles tear in the Wild Card Round put that to a screeching halt.  It’s the worst injury to endure, and players rarely return to their normal levels.  It’s even possible the 33 year old will retire.  Either way, the Jets will likely move on and have Wayne Hunter serve as the starter with Vladimir Ducasse competing…  Bryan Thomas is a JAG at this point of his career and the combination of cap savings and zero dead money sounds like an appealing cap-saving cut…  Ben Hartsock commands zero respect as a receiving threat and can be cheaply replaced…  Ainge showed little long term promise, and that was even before he went to rehab.  Nuff said…  Jason Taylor has a few playoff victories to add to his career accomplishments, but I’m sure he’d say this year left a sour taste in his mouth.  He’ll be gone, but my respect level for him is infinitely higher than it used to be.

Retirements:

OLB  Jason Taylor

DE  Trevor Pryce

FB  Tony Richardson

Restructures:

QB  Mark Sanchez – 2011 $17,753,125 cap value including $500,000 Bonus - $16,509,375 dead money if cut, $1,243,750 cap savings if cut

New 2011 cap value: $12MM

NT  Kris Jenkins – 2011 $6.4MM cap value including  $1MM Roster Bonus - $1.8MM dead money if cut, $4.6MM cap savings if cut

New 2011 cap value: $2.2MM

$10,123,125 in freed up money

Now that the bust label is pretty much shed from Sanchez, now is a good time to lock him up for the considerable future.  Even more so, his $17+ million cap figure for 2011 is exorbitant.  The best thing for both sides is to lower the 2011 figure while also adding more years and total guaranteed money to his contract.  Adding say three more years to his contract keeps him under Jets rights through the 2016 season.  A $12MM figure for 2011 seems reasonable.

Kris Jenkins is an interesting case.  When healthy, he is a dominating force on the inside and maybe the only defensive lineman on the Jets roster that legitimately commands double teams.  The problem though is health.  If this were any other guy, I could see him easily being cut.  Based on early indications, Jenkins wants to make another go at it this year instead of hanging up the cleats.  If the Jets approach this as “expect nothing, be happy with anything” with regard to his health and not rely on him as a key cog in the 2011 lineup, then they can possibly work out an incentive based deal where Jenkins takes a significant pay cut unless he stays healthy.

Total Players Let Go:  14

Total 2011Cap Space Freed: $32,728,250

In-house Free Agent Signings with 2011 Cap Figures:

WR  Santonio Holmes - $7MM

ILB  David Harris - $6MM

WR  Braylon Edwards - $6MM

OT  Wayne Hunter - $3.1MM

S  Brodney Pool - $1.8MM

C/G  Rob Turner - $750,000

CB  Drew Coleman - $1MM

S  James Ihedigbo - $1MM

P  Steve Weatherford - $750,000

K  Nick Folk - $750,000

$28,150,000 to retain players (10)

By all indications, Santonio Holmes appears to be priority number one, even if it comes at the cost of Braylon Edwards.  I think they keep both in order to surround the young QB with all of the weapons he needs.  Expect Holmes’s contract to have provisions in place in case he does get into trouble again so that the team’s investment is protected. 

David Harris was recently franchised by the team, setting him up to earn roughly $10MM this season.  The tag was used more as a precaution in order to guarantee his rights for another season in hopes of signing an extension.  A member of the team’s “Core Four,” look for the front office to ink Harris for years to come like his fellow teammates D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Nick Mangold, and Darrelle Revis.  Not only will it ensure his place in a Jets uniform for a while, but it will also significantly reduce his cap hit in 2011.  Look for a smaller 2011 cap hit with a big bonus in 2012, however, forcing the front office to restructure with Bart Scott.  Few teams can or should pay to inside linebackers a nearly combined $16MM annually.

According to some sources close to the Jets, the team attempted to extend Wayne Hunter at a lower cost before the season and he and his agent balked at the offer.  Instead, they opted to gamble the 2010 season in an attempt to increase his value.  A swing tackle for the past few years, Hunter earned his chance to start with Damien Woody’s two separate injuries late in the year.  While he was far from All-Pro, he certainly showed his worth as a short-term starter at RT.  According to the same source, the Jets approached Hunter’s agent this past weekend but have yet to break ground on negotiations.  Though four other teams have expressed interest if he hits the open market, he has a stated a desire to remain with the team that groomed him.  Look for a 2-3 year deal with a significant bump from his 2010 pay ($1.233MM).

Brodney Pool showed strides of improvement down the stretch and including the playoffs, exhibiting great technique in run support along with a bit of playmaking ability.  This is one of those miserly positions for the front office, and I don’t see them paying a premium on just an average starter.  If he demands too much, look for a cheaper alternative…  Rob Turner is a fiery guy who will be needed as insurance in case of an injury to Mangold, Matt Slauson, or Brandon Moore…  At times, Drew Coleman can be head-scratchingly bad in coverage; other times, he comes up with a big sack, forced fumble, or interception.  For CB depth, you can really do worse.  He stays if he doesn’t want a significant raise from 2010…  Ihedigbo, or “Dig” as his teammates call him, can fill in under the Eric Smith role for the team as a hybrid safety/linebacker in passing situations as well as on special teams.  Both are big hitters with limited coverage skills, but Dig will be cheaper and is a better blitzer.

Despite a head-scratching decision to fake punt in a low scoring game against the eventual Super Bowl Champs, Steve Weatherford was a pretty effective regular season punter, nearly setting an NFL record for most punts inside the 20; unfortunately, he lost his charm in the playoffs and was nothing short of horrendous.  For a punter, 15 solid games outweighs 4 poor ones so I think he’ll be brought back…  Nick Folk was far from a good kicker last year, but at the same time he didn’t cost the team any games.  His kickoffs did get noticeably worse throughout the season though.  For now, he’ll be back.

Other Free Agent Pickups:

OLB Antwan Barnes - $1.2MM

Barnes was acquired mid-season by the Chargers from the Eagles.  As a part-time player, he notched four sacks in eleven games with San Diego.  He’d likely compete with Jamaal Westerman and a rookie for the starting OLB opposite Calvin Pace.

$29,350,000 total spent

$32,728,250 total saved

$3, 378,250 available to spend on rookies

With at least three more roster spots available, here is the time for rookies.  Approximately $5MM will be needed to sign all rookies.  Since this offseason mock will not include specific rookies, it should be noted that the Jets primary concern in the draft is help in the front seven, most glaringly at DE and OLB. 

There we go.  As the offseason progresses, I will periodically update this.  For now, keep your fingers crossed that this lockout ends ASAP.

Updated Mark Sanchez Career Playoff Numbers

Mark Sanchez


2009: 2-1 record, lost in AFC Championship Game; 4 TD, 2 INT; 60.3% completions; 180 ypg; 7.9 ypa; 92.7 QB rating


2010: 2-1 record, lost in AFC Championship Game; 5 TD, 1 INT; 60.7% completions; 205 ypg; 6.9 ypa; 95.5 QB rating


Total: 6 games, 4-2 record; 9 TD, 3 INT; 60.5% completions; 192.5 ypg; 7.4 ypa; 94.3 QB rating




As for some of the "negative" statistics, in those six games he has been sacked only four times.  He has also lost one fumble.  That being said, perhaps the most amazing statistic is his incredibly low rate of interceptions, with only 1.9% of his attempts going for picks.  Let's see how that, as well as the rest of Mark's numbers, stack up with some of the all-time bests in the playoffs.

Thanks to 18to88.com, here are the 21 highest rated quarterbacks in NFL Playoff History (min: 6 games played or 150 attempts):

Rank                                Rating  Wins  Losses   Comp     Att      TD    INT    Yards    YPA
1   Aaron Rodgers         112.6      4            1            118      174     13      3      1517      8.7
2   Bart Starr                    104.8      9            1           130      213     15       3      1753      8.2
3   Kurt Warner               102.3      9            4            307     462      31     14     3952      8.6
4   Drew Brees               102.0      4            3            189     285      15      2      2052      7.2
5   Joe Montana               95.6     16           7            460      734     45     21     5772      7.9
6   Mark Sanchez             94.3      4            2              95      157       9       3      1155      7.4
7   Ken Anderson            93.5       2            4           110      166       9       6      1321      8.0
8   Joe Theismann         91.4       6            2            128      211     11      7      1782      8.4
9   Peyton Manning         88.4       9          10           435      692     28     19     5164      7.5
10 Troy Aikman               88.3      11           5           320      502      23     17    3849      7.7
11 Brett Favre                  86.3      13         11           481      791     44     30     5855      7.4
12 Steve Young               85.8      12           8           292      471     20     13     3326      7.1
13 Tom Brady                  85.7      14           5           424      682     30     16     4407      6.5
14 Warren Moon             84.9       3            7           259      403      17     14     2870      7.1
15 Rich Gannon             84.6       4            5            154      240     11      9       1691     7.0
16 Ben Roethlisberger  84.5      10           3           226      369     19     16     2861      7.8
17 Matt Hasselbeck       84.4       5            6           237      406      18      9      2741      6.8
18 Ken Stabler                84.2       7            6           203      351      19     13     2641      7.5
19 Bernie Kosar             83.5       4            5           152      270      16     10     1953      7.2
20 Jake Delhomme       83.3      5             3           130      226      12     10     1847      8.2
21 Terry Bradshaw        83.0      14           5            261     456      30     26     3833      8.4




Not too shabby for a guy with two years experience.  Now of course he hasn't been asked to shoulder the load as much as guys like Montana, Manning, Brees, or Young, but Mark has been pretty effective in what he's been asked to do and has shown considerable improvement over his regular season numbers.


Going back to the percentage of attempts intercepted, Sanchez's paltry 1.9% of attempts intercepted would place him fourth on this list, only behind Rodgers, Starr, and Brees.  This is astonishing improvement from his rookie regular season numbers, where a whopping 5.5% of his attempts were intercepted.  While he did make remarkable improvement in that department in his second regular season (only 2.6% where picked off), his tremendous post-season ball security and decision-making is almost unparalleled.

Rather than simply protecting the ball, Sanchez has risen to the occasion when asked to make a play.  5.7% of his playoff passes have resulted in a touchdown, placing him 7th on this list and ahead of names like Brady, Aikman, and Roethlisberger.

What does this all mean for Sanchez?  The regular season Mark Sanchez is still a work in progress, though it is safe to say that he has shaken off any bust labels placed on him.  A lot remains to be seen whether he will be an above-average quarterback or an elite level quarterback.  Year three in the Jets system will go a long way in determining his ceiling.  Accuracy will be of paramount focus for Sanchez since that is his major weakness at this point, and it is what seemed to have triggered his playoff successes thus far.  He probably will not be a guy that will finish top 5 in yards or TDs most years, but he has the makings of a guy you want behind center when the season is on the line.

Mark Sanchez's playoff career trending in a Roethlisbergerian direction

With the New York Jets heading into Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers for the AFC crown, now would be a good time to analyze the playoff performance of young Mark Sanchez to date.  The reason I say that is because after looking at his first two playoff runs, they chart similarly to the early career of his opponent this week, Ben Roethlisberger.

Note:  This is only going to take into account the first two seasons of each player's career since both have made the playoffs as starting QB in their rookie and sophomore seasons, so please try not to visualize the Big Ben of the last few years when taking this into account.  For Sanchez, that is 2009 and (to date) 2010 and for Roethlisberger 2004 and 2005.





Ben Roethlisberger


2004: 1-1 record, lost in AFC Championship Game; 3 TD, 5 INT; 57.4% completions; 204 ypg; 7.5 ypa; 61.2 QB rating

2005: 4-0 record, won Super Bowl XL; 9 total TD (2 rushing), 3 INT; 62.4% completions; 201 ypg; 8.6 ypa; 101.6 QB rating

Total: 6 games, 5-1 record; 12 total TD (2 rushing), 8 INT; 60.5% completions; 202 ypg; 8.2 ypa; 86.8 QB rating




Mark Sanchez


2009: 2-1 record, lost in AFC Championship Game; 4 TD, 2 INT; 60.3% completions; 180 ypg; 7.9 ypa; 92.7 QB rating


2010: 2-0 record, playing in AFC Championship Game; 3 TD, 1 INT; 60.7% completions; 192 ypg; 6.8 ypa; 91.6 QB rating


Total: 5 games, 4-1 record; 7 TD, 3 INT; 60.5% completions; 184 ypg; 7.4 ypa; 92.2 QB rating




Obviously Mark Sanchez has some unfinished business, but the numbers so far are pretty similar.  Both QBs were not asked to carry the team for four quarters but rather to lead in the team in its most critical moments.  This is evidenced by the low number of attempts each QB had per game, which is roughly 25 passes a game.

Roethlisberger and Sanchez were both competently accurate, hovering over the 60% mark, but this is where we notice some differences between the two. As a regular season QB, Roethlisberger was about as accurate as they come for young guns, averaging a completion percentage in the low to mid 60s.  This cannot be said for Sanchez.  During the regular season, this seems to be Mark's biggest issue and something he will need to improve as he matures.  However, in the playoffs his accuracy is about five points higher while Big Ben's is a touch lower.

A great down the field thrower since the first day he stepped on the field, Roethlisberger unsurprisingly carries a higher yards per attempt and thus approximately twenty more passing yards a game.  To average 8 yards per attempt for a career is amazing, and that is what Big Ben has done in his seven seasons.  The playoffs have been no different to him, and his first two playoff runs show just that.  The difference between he and Mark is that Sanchez's 7.4 ypa is nearly a full yard above his career average.  It all goes back to accuracy.  By completing just a few more passes a game, it has a dramatic effect across the board.

A common misconception about Sanchez from those who do not watch him each week is that he does not or the gameplan does not call for downfield throws.  Almost the complete opposite has been the reality much of the season, and that had been one of the critiques of OC Brian Schottenheimer -- that the complexity of the offense and the number of downfield passes it called for exacerbated Sanchez's decision-making and accuracy.  The decision-making has improved with maturity in year two, but the accuracy still remained a problem and thus negatively affected his yards per attempt average.  Since the Week 15 matchup against Pittsburgh, however, the offense has called for a lot more quick reads and it has played to Mark's strengths.  The shorter, quicker throws have allowed Sanchez to complete 63.1% of his passes for 6.7 ypa in his last four games, both noticeable increases.  The downfield throws are less vast and more calculated now, and it has helped his overall game.

The TD:INT ratio and QB rating are where Sanchez edges out Roethlisberger.  The reason for both is simple; Sanchez has taken better care of the football.  However, if you only look at Big Ben's Super Bowl run, the ratio is the same.  Either way, Sanchez sports a slightly higher QB rating mainly because the TD:INT ratio offsets the negligible advantages Big Ben had in other passing statistics.

When looking at this from the big picture what you should take away is that Roethlisberger, who played about as well as any rookie and sophomore QB could during the regular season, maintained a pretty similar and efficient level in the playoffs.  The difference here is the incredible improvement Sanchez has made when on the big stage.  Neither QB looked like Montana or Elway out there, but Roethlisberger's play in 2005 shows that a well-rounded team that is efficient and calculated on offense can win a Super Bowl with a young rising QB.

A Dedication to Colts RB Joseph Addai

In your best Paul McCartney (or Axl Rose) voice, please sing along:


When you were young
and you ran an open playbook
You used to say give and fake give
You know you did
You know you did
You know you did
But in this ever changin' league
in which we play in
Makes you give in and try
Say LIVE AND LET ADDAI
Live and let Addai

A Word on Current Playoff Format

With a large part of football nation clamoring about the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks making the playoffs and hosting a Wild Card game this afternoon, now would be a good time to set the record straight.

First, this season was a bit of an anomaly, and I for one tend to not advocate implementing new rules based aberrations.  Since the 2002 season when the NFL split into eight divisions, this was the first year of the nine in which a team won the division with a losing record.  The NFC West was just historically bad this season, and that's going to happen from time to time; that's just the ebb and flow of the NFL.  Sometimes things can swing the opposite direction.  For example, in 2007 the AFC South boasted three teams with double-digit wins and the last place Houston Texans did not have a losing record (8-8).  Nothing is perfect, and as long as there are divisions you have to reward the division winner with something.

Since 2002:

# of 9-7 division winners: 5 (Jets - 2002; Seahawks - 2004; Seahawks - 2006; Buccaneers - 2007; Cardinals - 2008)
# of 8-8 division winners: 1 (Chargers - 2008)
# of 7-9 division winners: 1 (Seahawks - 2010)

On average, almost every year one non-elite team wins a division.  The term non-elite is used to describe division champs that did not reach double-digit victories. Only two of these seven teams did not have a winning record.  So out of the 72 division winners since 2002, 70 of them had a 9-7 record or better.  That's nearly 97% of the time.

The real problem is not that these teams are making the playoffs but instead that they are hosting playoff games.  Five of the seven teams hosted Wild Card teams that finished with a better regular season record.  It's one thing to reward a team with a playoff birth for wading through a division but it's another to give a team a home game against a team in a different division with a better record.  I just cannot justify that.

In total, out of the thirty-two Wild Card Round games to date there have been nine "Situations" in which a Wild Card team played on the road versus a Division Champ with an inferior record.  In those games, the Wild Card team is 4-5.  There are four more of those this weekend: Saints (11-5) at Seahawks (7-9); Jets (11-5) at Colts (10-6); Ravens (12-4) at Chiefs (10-6); and Packers (10-6) at Eagles (10-6).  Despite the same record, the Packers defeated the Eagles in Week 1 to win the tiebreaker.  That brings it to a grand total of thirteen instances out of thirty-six games.

The two most egregious examples of a better record team playing on the road are today's Saints game and the 2008 Colts playing on the road with 12 wins versus an 8-8 Chargers team that ending up winning in OT.  Those who differ with the proposal of "reseeding" would argue that the home field advantage the division winner gets offers a nice balance to the playing field and makes the opening round games more exciting.  The purpose of the playoffs is to crown the best team winner, and teams with a better record deserve the home field advantage regardless of whether they won a division or not.  Furthermore, the reseeding would make Week 17 games even more exciting.  Do you think the Jets would have rested starters if they knew a home game was at stake?  Do you think the Eagles would have rested starters if they thought the Packers could steal the first round home game from them?  I like Roger Goodell's commitment to making all Week 17 games exciting by having divisional matchups, and reseeding is another smart step in that direction.

Dinks and Dunks

Why is the NFL regular season almost over?  It really does go by fast.  In an effort to continue posting in the offseason, I am starting a segment called Dinks and Dunks to discuss a handful of topics that will swirl around in the coming months.  For now, here is a sneak preview.

1st and 10: Why should you care about Sunday night's NFC West Title game?


If you are a lover of football and the NFL, you should pull hard for the St. Louis Rams but more specifically QB Sam Bradford.  For all the deserved flak the NFC West has taken this year, the lone bright spot has been the play of Sam Bradford.  While the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals have rotated through injuries and benchings all year long, Bradford has remained healthy and outplayed every other QB in his division.

On pace for 3500 yards, a positive TD:INT ratio and shot at 20 TDs (if he throws two Sunday night), and less than 35 sacks taken, that's better than Joe Flacco's rookie season and almost identical to Matt Ryan's.  This kid is going to be special; I say kid because I'm finally older than some QBs.  Nonetheless, Sunday night's showdown could really be a stepping stone in his career and coming of age moment for him.  As bad as the Seahawks are and as little as they deserve the playoffs, they are still one of the hardest stadiums to play as a visitor.  So bust out your Torry Holt jersey from 2001, rip off that extraneous "1," and root for a guy who has the potential to be an elite one in this league and not some QB who got bald at 25 and has an injury to his hip of all places.  Move one yard to second down because that's all this division deserves.



2nd and 9: Is there any way to stop the Patriots offense?


Surefire QB Tom Brady has been absolutely lethal this season.  The offense has scored nearly three times more touchdowns than field goals.  Since December, he's been the no-brainer MVP.  Can it be stopped?

Other than simply stating, "hope Tom Brady has an off game" here is my best guess at a style of defense that can stop him.  First and foremost, the Giants Super Bowl XLII blueprint was to pressure Brady like crazy with only the front four.  I would say that worked successfully because they held a team that averaged nearly 37 points a game that year to only 14.  Unfortunately, almost no teams this year have a boatload of pass rushers like the Giants did that year.  While the basic premise of success with rushing four remains true, here are two specific keys:

1)  Pressure up the middle.  Brady has been a master of quick release this season and has given edge rushers or blitzers no time to get to him.  In that case, what's the quickest way between two points?  A straight line.  Any team that has a dominant interior lineman capable of completely wrecking a play before it starts can take its toll over time on Brady.

2) Attack the blind side.  If there is a weak point on this line, it is LT Matt Light and his pass protection.  He is the weakest link of an otherwise superb offensive line.  If you can repeatedly get to Brady's blind side, it will force the Patriots out of their comfort zone and make them alter their protections.

If you have a combination of those two plus the ability to catch any bouncing balls or tipped passes, you can play good enough defense to hang with the Patriots.  If that still doesn't work, the only hope would be to have the Patriots face someone who can go punch for punch with Brady, like a Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or Drew Brees.

The two teams most likely to slow down the Pats are the Ravens and Packers.  The Ravens can shut down the run along with Haloti Ngata rushing up the middle and Terrell Suggs on the outside.  Ed Reed and Ray Lewis can still make big-time plays.  As for the Packers, Clay Matthews is an absolute terror on the edge and BJ Raji is a force inside.  The next tier of teams they'd least like to face would be the Chiefs, Falcons, and Saints.  As good as the Steelers are, Brady just seems to have their number.

Brady dinks it five yards to Woodhead over the middle to set up third down.



3rd and 4:  What are they doing in San Diego?

Earlier this week, Chargers owner already gave head coach Norv Turner a vote of confidence in returning next year.  Is he serious?  Turner should not have even been the coach this year!  Although he's a genius mind, he's brain-dead as a coach.  Since 2004, the Chargers have been one of the most talented teams year in, year out.  Since he took over in 2007, they have progressively done worse and finally paid the price this year for a slow start.

Just imagine if Norv Turner and these Chargers played in Dallas or Washington or New York.  They'd be fried by the media week after week and I'm sure they would have called for Norv's head a year ago.  It's funny how different the media and fans react in certain cities versus others.  If it weren't 75 degrees and sunny in San Diego everyday, then I'm sure their fans would snap out of it and realize they are wasting away a super talented team with a terrible coach.  On to fourth down.





4th and 1:  What should Carolina do with the #1 pick?


This has been a popular topic of discussion in the North Carolina area now that the Panthers locked themselves into the #1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.  Things can change between now and April, but at the moment Stanford QB Andrew Luck has entrenched himself as the clear-cut #1 guy.  Herein lies the dilemma:  Should the Panthers make the move for the top prospect at the most important position or should they continue with Jimmy Clausen, the guy they thought would carry the franchise when they scooped him up in the second round of the 2010 NFL Draft?

A lot has been made about how poorly Jimmy Clausen has played this season, but considering the plethora of injuries and dearth of skill position players on his side of the ball, nobody should be surprised the way the rookie struggled.  That being said, the jury is still out on him.  I for one thought it was foolish for them to throw him into the fire, especially because you can sometimes shell-shock a QB who isn't prepared yet to face NFL defenses despite his overall potential or physical tools.  However, I cannot blame a lame duck coach in John Fox trying to spark the team and seeing what his high value pick had to offer.  Furthermore, the front office decided to hitch its wagon to a not fully proven Matt Moore without a veteran backup.  Poor preparation like that coupled with a little bit of bad luck (Moore's injuries) resulted in horrendous QB play this year.

In this case, the Carolina Panthers MUST take Andrew Luck with the #1 pick if (and likely when) he declares for two reasons:

1) It took a few years for the rest of the country to realize it, but I think it's safe to say that everyone now knows that while football is a team game, quarterback play is of most importance in this day and age.  Drafting a QB that does not bust is no easy task for a GM, but Luck has all the right tools you look for in a player -- accuracy, leadership, size, arm strength, and intelligence.  For comparison sake, he looks like Sam Bradford without the injury history.  Clausen does still have a chance to be a pretty good starting QB, but the odds are more against him than for him at this point.  If Clausen ends up greatly improving, having two capable young QBs is an amazing problem to have.  After the 2006 season, Atlanta traded Matt Schaub to Houston for two second rounders.  In Philadelphia, the asking price for Kevin Kolb is similar.

2) The Panthers have no huge financial commitment to Jimmy Clausen.  And that is what it really all boils down to here.  [Aside: Every NFL team painstakingly works to trim salary fat, but the Carolina Panthers are downright Costanza-esque misers to the point of harm to the team].

This summer, Clausen signed a four year deal, $2.533 million guaranteed that included a $2.8 million fourth year performance escalator giving the contract a potential total value of $6.3 million.  If the Panthers were to draft Andrew Luck and start him on day one, Clausen's salary would not be high for a backup because if you take out the $2.533 million he made this year as well as the $2.8 million he would certainly not earn due to backup status, his average salary will run under $500,000 the next two seasons.  That is pretty cost effective. For the Panthers sake, they hope Clausen is "hot and a good deal" like the Wizard and not "not hot and not a good deal" like the Willard.  Catch the second Seinfeld reference?

If Clausen were a top 20 pick last year, I don't think you'd see the Panthers take Luck no matter how good of a chance he has at being an elite QB.  They would have too much of a financial burden on one guy to afford the other.  That is not the case here.

Projecting the Playoffs

With just three weeks remaining in the season, it's time to start seeing who is in and who is out.

AFC:

The Patriots and Steelers have all but locked up a first round bye, and will likely finish out as the top two seeds respectively.  Pretty much the only way Pittsburgh can gain the top seed is if they can finish a full game above New England since the Pats own the tiebreaker.  This year will be a complete turnaround compared to last, with the top seeds Indy and San Diego hosting warm weather or dome locations last season.

One would never think to say "AFC South race" in December with Peyton Manning at the helm, but that is the case this year.  To take it a step further, if the Colts do not win today not only will they be officially out of the division race, but they will really be putting their backs against the wall for a Wild Card spot.  The Colts will likely beat the Jags today to keep it interesting.  If the Colts win today, they will be tied with the Jaguars atop the NFC South at 8-6 with both teams having a 3-2 division record.  The Colts would hold the tiebreaker due to record in common games, however since that would make the Jags 6-6 and the Colts 7-5 (Note:  For division winners, common games tiebreaker precedes conference record).  This has been Peyton Manning's toughest season in about a decade, and it would not surprise me to see them miss out on the division; however, it's really hard to put your money against a guy who has won the division for more than half the decade.  I think both teams will finish 10-6 and the Colts will win the common games tiebreaker to claim the division.

The upstart Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) currently hold a half game lead over the late-surging San Diego Chargers (8-6), who always seem to make something happen in December.  Obviously, the safest way for the Chiefs to win the division is if they win out.  They will likely need to do that in order to clinch because they will not hold the common games tiebreaker.  By facing two teams that have thrown in the towel in the final two weeks in the Bengals and Broncos, there is almost no way the Chargers will not finish 10-6.  The division will likely tip in San Diego's favor after today since the Chiefs will be sending a recovering Matt Cassel to the field in St. Louis.  As bad as the NFC West has been, St. Louis is at least a tough team to play in their building.  Expect both teams to finish 10-6 and the Chargers to squeak by yet again.

As it stands now, the Ravens and Jets hold the Wild Card spots with the records of 9-4.  The Ravens hold the edge due to their Week 1 win over New York.  Both teams have pretty difficult final stretches and neither team has played well in the last month.  The Ravens host a red hot Saints team today and then finish up at Cleveland and home against Cincinnati.  Baltimore hasn't been the scary home site it used to be in the past two years and will be in a real battle today.  Playing in Cleveland next week will be no picnic either, as the Browns have been very competitive this year despite its 5-8 record.  I expect the Ravens to split these two games then obliterate the Bengals on Week 17 to vault themselves into the playoffs with a 11-5 record.  In just two short weeks, the New York Jets went from first round bye to fighting for their lives.  It doesn't get any easier with trips to Pittsburgh and Chicago before closing out at home versus the Bills.  The Jets could easily squander away playoff hopes by losing these next two difficult games.  The last thing they want is to finish 10-6 and hope to win tiebreakers because they will likely not make the playoffs that way.  When it's all said and done, they will squeak their way into the playoffs in typical Jets fashion.

Projected Seeds:

1. New England 14-2
2. Pittsburgh 13-3
3. San Diego 10-6
4. Indy 10-6
5. Baltimore 11-5
6. New York 11-5



NFC:

For all intents and purposes, the NFC East crown will be decided today when the Eagles face off with the Giants.  An Eagles win will pretty much wrap up the division since Philadelphia won the prior meeting.  I expect that to happen today because the Eagles are the best team in the NFC records aside.  In the end, Philly will end up as the #2 seed in the playoffs.

In the NFC North, the Chicago Bears have been able to keep the ball rolling after a hot start to the season, coming in with a 9-4 record.  With an easy game on Monday against the Vikings, they will be 10-4 before two tough games to finish -- home versus the Jets and on the road in Green Bay to finish the season.  The Green Bay Packers still stand at 8-5 despite the slew of injuries its faced thus far.  It gets even worse tonight in New England without the heart of the team -- Aaron Rodgers.  After a probable loss tonight, they would need to win out.  Luckily they somewhat control their destiny after a loss because they will get to play the two teams they are competing with most -- the Giants and Bears.  I expect both teams to finish 10-6, but the Bears will hold the edge due to division record.

The team with the best record in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons, come in with an 11-2 record and will finish with the #1 seed.  As "bad" as the Saints season has gone so far, they are still 10-3 and have been playing really good football lately with many of their injured offensive players coming back.  Unfortunately for them, it won't matter because they will get shipped out on the road in the playoffs as the top Wild Card.  Both teams do face each other and the Saints still technically could win the division, but it would take an epic meltdown from Atlanta.  That won't happen.

Out in the lowly NFC West, the winner will host a home game despite not having a winning record.  The only team of any promise in that division is the St. Louis Rams, a young team that is confident at home.  While the Seahawks are still very much in the hunt, they are not any good and have started to fade of late.  Counting on the 49ers to win their final two is a pipe dream.  I'll take the team with the best QB (albeit a rookie).

The final Wild Card spot will come down to Green Bay and the New York Giants.  More specifically, it will come down to their Week 16 matchup.  Even though Packers players have been dropping like flies this season, I still expect them to crank out the victory in Week 16 and then close out with a win versus Chicago to claim the final Wild Card spot.  The Giants are too streaky and turnover prone to be trusted to win the final spot.  Losing Steve Smith hurts that dynamic offense, too.  He was Eli's go-to guy on third downs and helped keep the chains moving.  Tampa Bay is certainly in the hunt, but I still think they are too young to make the playoff run.

Projected Seeds:

1) Atlanta 13-3
2) Philly 12-4
3) Chicago 10-6
4) St. Louis 8-8
5) New Orleans 13-3
6) Green Bay 10-6